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| 29 | 30 | 31 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 05 |
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| 26 | 27 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 09 |
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Fundamental Analysis: Non-farm Payrolls (NFP)
Non-farm Payrolls - This is one of indexes, recorded and reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is included into monthly survey “National Current Employment Statistics” (CES). Non-farm Payrolls represent the total number of paid US workers of any business, excluding the following employees: general government employees, employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals, farm employees. About 400 thousand of companies and 50 thousand of home economics are estimated. These data are released monthly, revised in accordance with seasonal fluctuations, etc. Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Workweek and Hourly Earnings are used for inflation rate, that is for rates change also. Frequency: Released monthly, usually on Friday at 16:30. Market importance: High  Analysis: NFP was in an uptrend from October, 2001. Since September, 2003 this index has been positive, which signals increase in the US labor market. Within the last two years growth rates of this indicator steadied. For the last year growth in the labor market slowed down in the last year.  Analysis:NFP y/y rates of growth are still quite steady, though sharp slowdown in the labor market growth is observed. In the mid-term plan the labor market growth may keep slowing down. Before NFP release the following data were reported::
Conclusion:
In November Employment environment, included into Chicago PMI and ISM, decreased again below 50, which signals weak perspective of the US labor market. Employment indices signal in favor of the probable labor market slowdown. Jobless claims in the USA (4-week moving average) decreased again, which mean positive data in January. Jobless claims in the USA decreased within one month. These data show quite a contradictory situation. Employment environment is below 50.0, while jobless claims decrease. The index forecasts are adequate the situation, but the risks are great that readings will be worse than forecasted. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Current situation may be discussed at forum Yours respectfully, Ug The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Eugenya. Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd. |
