Retail Sales (RS). A measure of changes in retail sales.

Retail Sales index is the first index to release among consumer spendings indexes. It is a measure of the total receipt of retail stores. Percent change in consumer goods selling is the most important part of this report. Retail Sales comprise two thirds of GDP. Changes in RS index indicate consumers spending. Consumer spendings consist of durable goods, such as automobiles and household goods (about 40%), and of non-durable goods (about 60%). It should be taken into account that sell-out numbers changes are more often the result of food and auto fuel prices changes rather than of the level of consumer demand.

As Retail Sales are difficult to predict market reaction may be very sharp. Usually lower than expected reading is treated as a signal of GDP slower increase, lower inflation and interest rates.

Frequency: Released monthly at 8:30 ET around the 13th of the month

Market importance: Middle.

Analysis: Retail Sales are in a long-term uptrend. In September-October Retails Sales were in a downtrend, then the indicator growth was resumed.

Analysis: Retail Sales stabilized after volatile beginning of the year. Retail Sales are weak. The indicator recovered after negative data in September and October.

Conclusion:
Retail Sales are still in an uptrend, rates of growth are slowing down. High interest rates in the USA will impact negatively this indicator in the mid-term perspective, whereas energy resources prices decrease may have positive impact on the indicator. Annual rates of growth are at the lowest levels within the last two years, further slowdown is expected. Traditionally Retail Sales increase in JAnuary, forecasts are adequate to the situation.